Readers
familiar with That Line of Darkness: The Gothic from
Lenin to bin Laden (Encompass Editions
2013) will know that I wrote a blistering critical chapter on the folly of an
American-led invasion of Iraq resulting in a ruinous war and a devastated
economy. One of the worst consequences of that disaster was American support
for Nuri Al-Maliki as
Prime Minister. Since the book’s publication, the situation in Iraq and the
Middle East generally has grievously deteriorated. Iraq is threatening to
implode as the Islamist militant group, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, (ISIS)
has seized Falluja, the second largest city Mosul and is attacking the largest oil refinery. The following is a needed
update.
"Mere anarchy is loosed/ the worst are full of passionate intensity.” W. B. Yeats, 1916
|
Nuri Al-Maliki |
Writing in The
New Yorker, Dexter Filkins aptly comments that the invasion of Iraq in 2003 destroyed the
Iraqi state and empowered the Shiite majority, particularly the power of
Nuri
Al-Maliki. Since he assumed power in 2006, Maliki has been a polarizing and
autocratic figure who bears much of the responsibility for fomenting sectarian bile. Even under the disapproving eyes of American diplomats and military advisors, Maliki was dismantling the non-sectarian professional army. The process only accelerated after he refused to agree to a treaty that would keep a residual force of American troops there in
non-combatant roles and grant them legal immunity. Iran, as indicated below, was a major factor in pressuring Maliki to force the Americans to leave. Given the huge drain on the treasury and in human lives that the Iraq war had bequeathed to the American people, Obama, who had always opposed the war, was ready to acquiesce.
When the Americans left in
2011, with no restraining influences on him, Maliki governed in an unabashedly sectarian manner and deeply alienated the Sunnis. He and his ruling party behaved like thugs using the army and
the police to terrorize his religious and ethnic opponents. He reneged on a promise to share
power and oil wealth with the nine-million Sunnis and six million Kurds. He shattered an American bargain
with Sunni tribal chiefs that created the Sahwa or Awakening, a 100,000 Sunni tribal force that in 2007-2008 helped staunch a civil war by routing Al-Qaeda leaving them unemployed, bitter and susceptible to radicalization. He routinely ignored
regional demands for basic services and budgets. He violently suppressed peaceful protests, arrested the most reasonable Sunni political figures on the flimsy charge of terrorism, and accelerated the corruption that he had started before the Americans departed. The police and army were allowed to sell positions and promotions while
commanders were by-passed and Maliki Shiite loyalists were given key roles. The
US-trained force lost unity, morale, leadership, and effectiveness. Capable Sunni and Kurdish
officers left or were pushed out or sidelined. When Maliki relaxed the rigorous training prescribed by the Americans—his priority was creating a loyal rather than a high quality army—it should come as no surprise that the Iraqi army disintegrated when confronted by a zealous Sunni militia.
By his failure to be inclusive and conciliatory, Maliki
re-ignited Sunni anger, increased its support for armed resistance and driven it to become allies of the most pathological extremists. This led to rising violence and casualties
in 2011 and 2012, and a serious shift back towards civil war in 2013, long
before ISIS first attacked Falluja and Ramadi in late 2013. In
that year alone, 8000 Iraqis were killed, including 1000 security forces reminiscent of the worst days under the American occupation in 2006. Although
Iraq was not a terrorist stronghold when “shock and awe” toppled Saddam Hussein
in 2003, it is today. The Anbar-province city of Fallujah, liberated by
American forces in the country’s bloodiest warfare since Vietnam, is now under
ISIS control. Historians may one day regard the capture of Falluja as the beginning of the end of the territorial integrity of Iraq. Currently, the country is evolving (or devolving) toward partition along
sectarian lines: it has splintered into a Sunni north and west; a Kurdish
northeast and a Shiite south that, with Iranian help, retains for the time being Baghdad. A conflagration could engulf most of the country with much of it controlled by Sunni hyper-jihadists who have no qualms about inflicting shockingly offensive atrocities.